What Are The Chances Of...

... the Fed pausing in their January meeting? Hell might freeze over twice before that happens; none, zero, zilch -- some would say! But in the Fed minutes notes (released the other day) from their last meeting in December, it would seem that the FOMC members were having a real hard think about whether it may actually not be more prudent to wipe the slate clean for Bernanke, so to speak. I believe the exact wording was "the number of future Fed tightenings may not be large"... What does "not large" mean? Is it the same as "small" or perhaps even "none"?!? Is the Fed taking the mickey out of investors? I thought all these things were "economic data-dependent"... Could Greenspan be saying in his own weird, roundabout way that he thinks it's for Bernanke to decide "just how large" is "large". The market is currently attaching almost 100% probability that we shall see a rate rise this month as well; hence if one wanted to spend a small $ amount/premium to be the silly contrarian on the odd chance that Greenspan goes out with a bang-bang, surprising everyone -- the payoff could be huge. Perhaps it's time to buy some out-of-the-money March Eurodollar calls -- take a look, it may well be worth a hail-mary punt.