Thursday, March 02, 2006

Retailers Weighing Heavy On This Market...BUT

The Morgan Stanley Retail Index (MVRX) closed at an all-time high yesterday ($169). How it got there I have no clue, considering the fundamental problems of the U.S. consumer. It would seem most of these retailers front-loaded their quarterly sales in January, discounted them heavily and also benefited significantly from much warmer than normal weather-induced store trafic. Is the party over? For retailers perhaps, BUT for the SPX though -- far from it I reckon. I think we will take out 1,310 this month, as I suggested some time ago in my better-than-50/50-chance commentary. Until then, buy-the-dippers will probably dominate. Too much money/cash is still sitting on the sidelines.

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