Monday, April 24, 2006

Time For Large Caps?

The small-cap dominated Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 by over 40% in the last 3 years -- valuations being driven up and up by private equity firm deals, plentiful sloshing liquidity and virtually no fear from what's happening out there in the macro world. All of these favorable circumstances are coming to an end. Hence, I would like to propose going long SPX @ 1310 and going short RTY @ 772 for the foreseeable future. This trade will work wonderfully if we are indeed going to face a 10%-15% equity market correction driven by growth and/or inflation scares. Watch out for warning signs from small metals and mining companies (within the Russell 2000) -- the valuations of those have outpaced the gains in the commodity market by a good margin, and in certain cases are trading at ridiculously lofty multiples.

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