Recovery Doesn't Mean We Are Out Of The Woods Yet...

I've been away for a month and, lo and behold, the market has recovered 50% of its losses and it all seems to be back to peachy and rosy paradise to some. Not so fast... To get back into bullish territory, the S&P 500 Sep06 futures would need to take out the 1305 level on a closing basis, which seems to be a world away right now (have you noticed how poor the NDX price action is?). Until then, I suspect it's going to be a range-bound market with the 1259 support and 1,300 resistance confining the market in its summer doldrums. Most people are on vacation and volumes are extremely thin. Not the best time to put on risk right now, unless one has 100% conviction, which a lot of people don't (including me), as far as short-term bouncing-around is concerned... Stay tuned for more when I notice people waking up. BofJ ZIRP decision this Friday -- maybe that stirs things up a bit...